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Matteo Bonetti Soccer Analyst Japan came to Dallas needing a point and left with a place in the Round of 32 — and the quiet satisfaction of a prediction starting to materialize.
I wrote about Japan being dark horses before a ball was kicked. Three games in, nobody's laughing. Sweden got the draw they needed too, courtesy of a goal from the one man on the field who wasn't supposed to be the story.
Here are my takeaways from Japan's 1-1 draw with Sweden:
1. The Dark Horses Are Real
(Photo by Luciano Bisbal/Eurasia Sport Images/Getty Images)
Second place, unbeaten, five points, and not a single opponent enjoyed the 90 minutes against them. That's Japan's group stage in a sentence. Hajime Moriyasu's side don't overwhelm you — they suffocate you. They sit in a tidy, disciplined block, let you have the ball in the places that don't hurt, then break at a speed that does. Daizen Maeda's opener was the blueprint: win it back, three passes, finish.
What makes them so hard to play is that there's no obvious area to attack. The spine does this every week in Europe, so the big moments don't rattle them. Feyenoord's Ayase Ueda's raw pace will pose a threat to any high line. Behind him, the guile of Maeda, the passing of Daichi Kamada, and the directness of Ritsu Doan mean the danger can come from anywhere. Three matches into their World Cup, it's clear they've been the toughest team in this group to beat, and nobody's calling that a reach anymore.
2. Sweden Will Go As Far As Two Men Carry Them
(Photo by Jose Hernandez/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Here's the honest truth about this Sweden side: the supporting cast is good enough. Most of the XI earn a living in Europe's top leagues — no passengers, no obvious weak link. But their ceiling is set by two men. Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres are the difference between Sweden bothering a contender and packing early, and on form they can trouble anybody left in this field.
Today was not their day. Gyökeres was poor — plenty of running, plenty of contact, no end product. He pinned Japan's center-backs without ever genuinely threatening Zion Suzuki. Isak flickered and faded. Sweden advanced anyway, which says something about the rest of the group, but the math from here is simple. They'll go exactly as far as those two strikers decide to carry them. No further.
3. Japan Didn't Just Stop Sweden's Strikers — They Erased Them
Gyökeres wasn't poor by accident. Japan made him poor. Moriyasu's back line stayed narrow and deep, refused to be dragged out of shape, and never let the big man turn and run. Every time Sweden went long, two shirts arrived to meet him — one in front, one wrestling behind. The cross-and-crash plan that bullies most defenses found nobody to bully.
Isak got the same treatment, nudged onto his weaker side with the through-ball lanes quietly bolted shut. Sweden had the bodies and the space and still couldn't carve out a clean look until Anthony Elanga improvised one from distance.
That's the blueprint in a sentence: you can have the ball, you can have the field, you just can't have the chance. It took a worldie to beat them — and for 90 minutes, the group's two best strikers barely landed a glove.
4. Won't Get Easier Moving Forward
Let's sort the group, then break the bad news. The Netherlands won it — that 5-1 dismantling of Sweden in Houston was the statement of the round. Japan took second, Sweden squeezed through third as one of the best third-placed teams. Everybody who advanced earned it.
Now the rewards, which are frankly cruel. Japan's prize for going unbeaten is Brazil, the Group C winners, on June 29 in Houston — Vinícius Junior flying, Neymar back in the picture. Sweden's reward for surviving is likely facing either Kylian Mbappé's France or Erling Haaland's Norway on June 30. The Dutch, for topping the group, draw tournament darling Morocco.
So the dark horses meet the Seleção, and Sweden's strikers get to test themselves against France. If Japan is the real thing, we're about to find out in the loudest way imaginable. There's no bigger exam in the Round of 32.
Japan vs Sweden Extended Highlights | 2026 FIFA World Cup™
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