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Who are the best FPL Challenge GW38 picks? Any player who features for a winning team this week will receive an additional eight points. We use Opta data to find the top players to target in the Premier League.
The Premier League title may already have been decided, with Arsenal crowned champions for the first time in 22 years on Tuesday night, but the FPL Challenge winner is still to be determined.
Good luck to Joseph Valkin, a self-confessed avid reader of this column, who sits third in the overall leaderboard heading into the final Gameweek – just seven points off top spot.
Winning is the name of the game in the final week of FPL Challenge. For Final Victory, all players who finish on the winning team will be awarded an additional eight points.
So, which teams are most likely to win this weekend? Thankfully, we have the Opta supercomputer predictions on hand to help forecast just that.
We’ll be putting our trust in the supercomputer by picking one player from each of the six teams it deems most likely to win in GW38.
Goalkeeper
David Raya: Arsenal vs Crystal Palace (A)
As long as he isn’t still nursing a hangover from Arsenal’s title celebrations, there’s no safer place to begin than David Raya. The Spaniard has kept a league-high 19 clean sheets this season in the Premier League, winning the Golden Glove award for a third consecutive campaign since joining from Brentford.
One more shutout away to Crystal Palace on the final day will see Raya set a new Arsenal record in the Premier League era.
With nothing left to play for domestically, Palace and Arsenal are both likely to name teams with upcoming European finals in mind – so be sure to keep an eye on the Gunners’ starting XI for this match.
Arsenal’s supercomputer win prediction: 51.4%
Defender
Virgil van Dijk: Liverpool vs Brentford (H)
This won’t be a season remembered fondly by Liverpool fans, but they have all but confirmed their spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League after Bournemouth conceded an equaliser in the fourth minute of added time against Manchester City on Tuesday.
Club captain Virgil van Dijk will want to ensure Liverpool end their campaign on a high, not least because this will be Mohamed Salah’s final game for the club.
Salah would be our pick for a fairytale ending if fit enough to start, but Van Dijk looks the safer bet. After a brace against Aston Villa last week, the Dutchman actually only trails Salah by one goal in the Premier League this season, with six.
Indeed, Van Dijk’s six league goals are the most of any defender in the competition this season and represent a new personal best.
Liverpool’s supercomputer win prediction: 51.5%
Midfielder
Jack Hinshelwood: Brighton vs Manchester United (H)
Brighton are regarded as favourites to defeat Man Utd on the final day, and that means there is no place in our team for Bruno Fernandes as he hunts down a record 21st assist of the season.
Instead, we are opting for in-form Brighton midfielder, Jack Hinshelwood.
The versatile Hinshelwood has always shown good instinct in the box, irrespective of where he has lined up for Brighton, but this quality has become increasingly evident since head coach Fabian Hürzeler switched him to a No. 10 role.
Hinshelwood recently scored in three consecutive league matches, against Chelsea, Newcastle and Wolves, and had good chances to increase that streak to four games when failing to score last time out against Leeds. Back him to get back on the scoresheet this week.
Brighton’s supercomputer win prediction: 49.8%
Forwards
Erling Haaland: Manchester City vs Aston Villa (H)
According to reports across football media, Pep Guardiola will take charge of Man City for the final time on Sunday when his team host Aston Villa.
It will be Guardiola’s 593rd match in charge of the club, taking him one clear of Les McDowall as the manager to take charge of the most games in the club’s history.
After being beaten to the Premier League title by Arsenal, City will have to settle for an FA Cup-League Cup double in Guardiola’s final campaign.
This will also be the final hurrah for Bernardo Silva and John Stones, and City will have to recover quickly from the disappointment of Tuesday’s draw with Bournemouth to give the departing trio the send-offs they deserve.
Erling Haaland didn’t hold back after the draw: “The whole club should use this as motivation now. We should be angry, we should feel a fire inside our belly because it’s not good enough.”
It doesn’t sound like the Norwegian will have any trouble firing himself up to add to his tally of 38 goals in all competitions this season. He will captain our side.
Man City’s supercomputer win prediction: 66.7%
Jarrod Bowen: West Ham vs Leeds United (H)
West Ham captain Jarrod Bowen certainly won’t be struggling for motivation this weekend. No matter the result for Tottenham against Everton, West Ham will need to beat Leeds if they are to have a chance of avoiding relegation to the Championship.
Bowen has gone 13 games without scoring for West Ham, though to his credit, he has assisted eight of the Hammers’ last 12 goals.
Overall, he has 10 assists in the competition this term, with only three West Ham players registering more in a campaign – Paolo Di Canio in 1999-00 (13), Dimitri Payet in 2015-16 (12) and Eyal Berkovic in 1998-99 (11).
West Ham’s supercomputer win prediction: 52.4%
Richarlison: Tottenham vs Everton (H)
Our final selection is another forward who will be doing all he can to avoid relegation.
Richarlison faces his former side, Everton, this weekend, knowing that a victory will keep him and his teammates in the Premier League next season.
Given that Spurs’ goal difference betters West Ham’s by 12, a draw will surely be enough, but make no mistake – Roberto De Zerbi’s side will be going out there to win.
Richarlison assisted the only goal in Spurs’ victory against Wolves (25 April) and scored what proved to be the match-winning goal against Villa (3 May), as well as scoring last time out against Chelsea on Tuesday.
That goal took his tally to 11 for the season in the Premier League, with no other teammate scoring more than four times. He will be dangerous again this weekend.
Tottenham’s supercomputer win prediction: 49.3%
GW38 Honourable Mentions
Across his last nine starts in the Premier League, Konstantinos Mavropanos has scored three goals while also bringing in defensive contributions points six times.
As mentioned earlier in this column, Mohamed Salah will play his final game for Liverpool this weekend when they host Brentford. As long as he gets enough time on the pitch, it feels right that the Egyptian should add to his tally of 257 goals for the club.
William Osula feels a strong choice for those who believe Newcastle will beat Fulham this weekend. The Dane has scored five goals in his last six games and has the best goals per 90 rate (0.85) of any player with five or more starts this season.
Opta Analyst’s Team Reveal: Gameweek 38 FPL Challenge Picks
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