Table of Contents
2026 NFL schedule|AFC record predictions|NFC record predictions|The Rams and the league’s ‘creative Super Bowl’
In 2024, to make up for the fact that Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles one play into the 2023 season, the NFL put the Jets through a slate of prime-time showcases that would make even the most ruthless stage mom blush. Having learned its lesson with Rodgers specifically, the NFL gave the Steelers a sweetheart schedule to open the season in 2025, likely hoping that Rodgers would factor into that season’s playoffs in some meaningful way (he did, kind of). In that same 2025 season, the NFL put the Chiefs in one prime-time game after another and a season opener in Brazil. The exhausted perpetual Super Bowl contenders gassed out about halfway through the season and finished 6–11.
To say that teams cannot be screwed by the schedule is ignorant. That is why this column exists every year. While some of what you’re about to read is more mirthful in nature, there are some really good football teams that are really fun to watch that just inherited a journey through Dante’s Inferno to simply make it back to the playoffs.
For those of you who want more schedule talk, check out a recap of the MMQB Podcast live stream from Thursday night. In the meantime, enjoy this year’s rendition of the eight teams most screwed by the schedule 2026.
Los Angeles Rams
This schedule is absurd. Seven prime-time games. A season opener in Melbourne, Australia. One of the worst net rest differentials in the NFL. Four 2025 playoff teams in the first five weeks. Thanksgiving Eve. Christmas in prime time against the Seahawks. Two Seahawks games in three weeks to end the season. This, for a team with a 38-year-old starting quarterback who couldn’t get through training camp last year without a space-age health trailer. This is how the NFL unwittingly vanquished the Chiefs last year and is seemingly attempting to do it again with the Rams. There’s a reason Sean McVay cautioned ESPN to hold their horses when talking about the Seattle games at the end of the season because it’s unlikely the Rams will get there totally unscathed. While it’s a reality of the business, it’s disappointing to see the league’s premier offense get absolutely picked apart by factors that are totally within the league’s control.
Detroit Lions
I suppose I cannot complain too much about this one, given that the NFL has done almost precisely what I asked it to do: punish teams that have a very easy strength of schedule in other ways. However, my rub with the Detroit schedule is incredibly specific. Just like I despise that both Rams-Seahawks games are within a three-week stretch to end the season, I really dislike all of Detroit’s road divisional games coming between Weeks 15 and 18. The Lions travel to Minnesota, Green Bay and Chicago all within the stretch of a month, creating a frantic period just before the playoffs in which the entire NFC North could change in complexion. From a viewing perspective, that’s what we would want, though the league fails to see the forest through the trees here. By creating such stretches, there’s a higher chance Detroit punches itself out as it did during the disappointing 2024 run that finished with the Lions getting waxed by the Commanders in the playoffs. This reminds me a little bit of Pittsburgh’s schedule from a year ago, which felt purposely easy in the front half to buoy Aaron Rodgers for a playoff run, only to shove literally every single divisional game in a 12-week stretch after the bye. Again, the joke is on me because that schedule created one of the great win-and-in moments of the past 10 years, with Pittsburgh edging Baltimore on a missed field goal to make the playoffs, irreversibly altering the course of both franchises. Still, the goal here should be to pace these games more evenly.
Jacksonville Jaguars
ESPN’s Brian Burke creates a metric called the schedule “pain” index, which is a combination of all the worst factors of a team’s schedule (rest differential, back-to-back road trips, travel miles and so on), with the Jaguars’ schedule coming out as the worst we’ve seen since 2002. And, I will note that four teams in 2026 (the Jaguars, Eagles, Chargers and Raiders) have among the 22 worst schedules since 2002. Think about that for a second. If any metric flags just how skewed the schedule-making process has become, this might be it. Between Weeks 2 and 6, the Jaguars are home once in a slate that has them facing the Broncos, Patriots, Bengals, Eagles, Texans, Colts and Ravens. Also, Jacksonville comes home from back-to-back games in London to a bye and a 10-game stretch in which seven are on the road. Obviously, it is this team’s desire to establish a home away from home in London and turn that into an advantage, but a cross-the-pond road trip is grueling for any club.
Los Angeles Chargers
After beginning the season with the Raiders and Cardinals, the Chargers fall into a stretch of games against the Bills, Seahawks, Broncos, Chiefs, Rams, Texans and Ravens. The Chargers will also finish the season with the 49ers, Chiefs and Broncos over a three-game stretch. But the major storyline here is a minus-22 net rest differential, which is the second-worst for any team in more than 20 years. Last year’s 49ers are a perfect example of how much this metric matters, having had a horrendous minus-20 net rest differential, only to have the league’s best in 2025. San Francisco was able to overcome a slew of injuries at critical positions to make a playoff run. In 2024? The team finished 6–11. The Chargers have four games against opponents coming off a bye in 2026 which is, you guessed it, tied for the worst in a 20-year stretch.
I think the point I want to drive home here is what a mistake it is to pound this Chargers team at a time where they are primed to become a team that could capture the imagination of young fans. We talk a lot about growing the game and go to incredible lengths to stage a game in Australia when we’re opting not to invest in an L.A. team still trying to find its footing with the league’s most creative offensive coordinator and a wonderfully skilled quarterback who may finally have met his schematic counterpart.
New York Jets
This is less a league complaint and more of a Jets specific one. The Jets got secretly hosed in terms of net rest differential (fourth worst at minus-9 days) despite a relatively easy slate of opponents. But I do wonder if the team is keeping a side eye on the schedules of other teams that are positioning themselves for a quarterback atop the 2027 draft class. Tanking doesn’t really exist in the NFL because it’s impossible to get 53 independent contractors to bypass future income for the sake of some 23-year-old college kid who may or may not be good. But this process illustrates just how simple it is for the league to put its thumb on the scale. The Jets have three first-round draft picks in 2027, but it won’t matter if teams like the Cardinals and Dolphins finish with worse records. The Cardinals’ schedule is an absolute obliteration. The team begins the season with games against the Chargers, Seahawks and 49ers before a cross-country road trip to the Giants and a three-game stretch against the Lions, Rams and Seahawks. After a road game against the Cowboys, the Cardinals play Seattle, the Rams, Commanders and Eagles. Similarly, the Dolphins have three four-game stretches dominated completely by prospective playoff teams.
Clearly, the NFL cannot think this way, but I wonder if there is a thought in the back of Roger Goodell’s mind that he may have inadvertently steered Arch Manning to a desert outpost instead of one of the biggest media markets in all of football.
Again, this is hyper Jets specific and more meta in nature. I can very much see a fan of this team thinking that, in the year they are supposed to be at their very worst, several teams are set up with far more obvious minefields ahead.
Denver Broncos
Zac Stevens of DNVR had this note: If you consider the Chiefs a playoff team—which, had Patrick Mahomes not torn his ACL, may have been possible last year—the Broncos would have been the first team in league history to begin the season with six games against playoff teams from the year before. I get that the Chiefs were not a playoff team but they remain the Chiefs. Starting the season with the Chiefs, Jaguars, Rams, 49ers, Chargers and Seahawks—with Bo Nix coming off a reconstructed ankle—isn’t exactly a cake walk. And, just to illustrate the power of schedule-makers, you juxtapose Denver’s start of the season while Nix is recovering to that of Kansas City, where Mahomes has back-to-back home games and games against the Raiders and Dolphins before an early bye. You can say that Kansas City’s schedule is an obvious makeup for last year, when Andy Reid’s team was sent to slaughter with a historic stretch of prime-time games, but a schedule that is fair and just to every team on a yearly basis wouldn’t have to worry about that. Right?
Buffalo Bills
This one confused me. Ideally, if a team is opening a new stadium, featuring a new head coach and boasting one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, this is a recipe for a featured role during the 2026 NFL season. Instead, we have a club that was shaky enough a year ago to necessitate the firing of its head coach, who was sent on an absolute odyssey. While it’s important to note that the league did grace the Bills with one of the best net rest differentials this year—something that I feel is important for teams with a harder natural strength of schedule, among other factors—Buffalo has among the highest net travel miles in the NFL this year and begins the year with games against the Texans, Lions, Chargers, Patriots and Rams before a bye, cross-country road trip to the Raiders and a matchup with the Ravens. The Bills also have a brutal winter stretch beginning with a Thanksgiving matchup against the Chiefs, followed by games against prospective playoff teams like the Patriots, Broncos, Bears and Packers. The Bills also play on both Thanksgiving and Christmas this year.
New York Giants
The NFL played another one of its scheduling parlor tricks with the Giants this year, understanding that the team, while much improved, is most likely to be an interesting property at the beginning of the season as opposed to the end. That means getting a lot of the tentpole properties like Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football out of the way early. While not as drastic as the Jets’ schedule in Year 2 with Aaron Rodgers, the Giants begin the season on Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys before a game against the Rams on Monday Night Football (while you could argue that getting the Rams coming off Melbourne is the best time to play Sean McVay this season, that’s still a lot of stand-alone pressure for a head coach in his first season with the team and it’s still a cross-country road trip for the Giants). The Giants face six consecutive prospective playoff teams coming off their bye week, with games against the Eagles, Commanders, Jaguars, Colts, Seahawks and 49ers.
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CONOR ORR
Conor Orr is a senior writer for Sports Illustrated, where he covers the NFL and cohosts the MMQB Podcast. Orr has been covering the NFL for more than a decade and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. His work has been published in The Best American Sports Writing book series and he previously worked for The Newark Star-Ledger and NFL Media. Orr is an avid runner and youth sports coach who lives in New Jersey with his wife, two children and a loving terrier named Ernie.
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