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A host of Premier League clubs will be backing Aston Villa to win the Europa League – as it could secure Champions League qualification for whoever finishes sixth.
Villa will take on Freiburg in Istanbul on 20 May – just four days before the final day of the league season in England.
Qualification for European competition has become pretty complicated in the past few seasons.
This has largely been caused by Uefa's new European Performance Spots (EPS).
These are the extra places in the Champions League given to the two leagues with the best overall record each season.
The Premier League has secured one of the two berths for 2026-27, with the Spanish La Liga claiming the other – just like last season.
It means there will be at least eight English teams in Europe next season.
With Villa, Arsenal and Crystal Palace all in a European final, what could this mean for the rest of the Premier League?
How the European places work
The logic of the EPS is simple. But other factors complicate matters.
It has two pillars: it is applied after all other considerations about domestic and European cup winners; it always provides one additional place to the overall allocation.
So England was set to have seven teams in Europe before securing an EPS – but now will have at least eight.
As it stands – and subject to who wins the FA Cup and where they finish – that now means this:
- The team finishing fifth will go into the Champions League
- The team finishing sixth will go into the Europa League
- The team finishing seventh will go into the Conference League
The top five have pulled away in recent weeks, with the last places held by Liverpool and Aston Villa on 58 points in fourth and fifth respectively.
There is a six-point cushion to Bournemouth in sixth place with three games to go.
The battle now is for the positions below – and it could yet be that sixth gets a route into the Champions League.
Just five points separate Bournemouth (52) from 12th-placed Sunderland (47).
Brentford (51) sit in seventh, followed by Brighton (50), Chelsea (48), Everton (48), Fulham (48) and Sunderland (47).
What if Arsenal win the Champions League?
Arsenal meet Paris St-Germain in the final of the Champions League.
The Gunners are going to finish in the top four of the Premier League, so winning the Champions League cannot impact the allocation.
The place reserved for the Champions League titleholders would pass to the league champions in qualifying with the best Uefa coefficient.
That looks like it would be Shakhtar Donetsk.
For the Premier League to get a sixth Champions League place via this route, Arsenal would have needed to finish outside the top four.
What if Villa win the Europa League?
The first thing to remember is that the Europa League winners qualify for the Champions League.
If Villa win the Europa League and finish in the top four, then nothing changes in terms of England's European spots. There would still be five teams in the Champions League, and eight in Europe.
The place in the Champions League reserved for the Europa League titleholders would pass to the team in qualifying with the best Uefa coefficient.
As it stands right now, that could be Benfica.
If Villa finish outside the top four, the Premier League will have six teams in the Champions League:
- The top four
- Villa as Europa League winners
- The EPS
Villa's precise final position would decide the Premier League's total European allocation.
If they finish fifth, the EPS passes to the Premier League's sixth-placed team.
And as we will know if Villa have won the Europa League ahead of the final day, it could presenta titanic battle to finish in sixth.
The Premier League would surrender a place in the Europa League. Overall, England would still have eight European places.
Why is a Europa League place given up? This is all about applying the EPS after all other factors.
So in this example, Aston Villa have earned a place in the Champions League but finished in a league position that qualifies them for the Europa League.
Uefa rules state that the berth in the lower competition has to be forfeited and passed to another league.
For instance, La Liga had no team in the first edition of the Conference League because Villarreal won a European competition and finished in seventh.
Let's say Villa finish fifth. The Premier League gives up the Europa League place.
Then you apply the EPS, which goes to sixth – the first team not in the Champions League.
The Conference League place drops to seventh.
If Villa finish sixth, then it is the Conference League place which is given up. After the EPS, eighth plays in the Europa League.
But could Villa winning the Europa League give England a ninth European spot? Only if they finish outside the domestic European places.
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What if Crystal Palace win the Conference League?
Crystal Palace will play Rayo Vallecano in the Conference League final on 27 May.
The Conference League winners qualify for the following season's Europa League.
And Palace – England's representatives – have only a small chance of qualifying for Europe domestically.
So, if the Eagles win the Conference League, it is likely they would take up an extra place in the Europa League as a titleholder.
That would mean the Premier League has nine clubs in Europe.
Palace are eight points behind Brentford, with a game in hand, in the first vacant position (pre-EPS).
If the Eagles were to soar up to seventh place, this would open the door for eighth to get the place in the Conference League next season.
Why would this be? Well, remember that the EPS is applied last of all.
By finishing seventh, Palace would be in the first position which does not earn European football by league position. They would enter the Europa League as a ninth English team.
When the EPS is applied and bumps the league placings down, the Conference League spot jumps over Palace and goes to eighth.
What about if Manchester City win the FA Cup, or Chelsea do and finish inside the top six? The places drop down one. If Palace were to finish eighth then the same scenario applies, and the Conference League place goes to ninth.
What is the maximum number of clubs in Europe for next season?
As Arsenal and Aston Villa will finish in the domestic European places, they cannot add an additional place by winning a European trophy.
It means that the maximum number for next season is nine:
- The top four in the Champions League
- Two teams in the Europa League (or one if Villa win the Europa League and finish outside the top four)
- One team in the Conference League
- Palace as Conference League winners if outside the top six
- The EPS
At the start of every season, the maximum is an unlikely 11.
For it to happen, English teams need to win all three European competitions with those clubs finishing outside the qualifying domestic league positions.
What about the FA Cup?
Chelsea will play Manchester City in the FA Cup final on 16 May.
The winners get a place in the Europa League.
For the European places in the Premier League to drop down one place, the FA Cup winners need to finish inside the top seven.
That would definitely be the case if City lift the trophy at Wembley.
After the EPS, sixth and seventh would be in the Europa League and eighth in the Conference League.
However, if Villa beat Freiburg and finish fifth or sixth, a place in the Europa League would still be forfeited.
If Chelsea win the FA Cup, it is going to depend where they finish.
The Blues would need to finish inside the top seven for the Conference League place to transfer to eighth.
Right now they are ninth, three points behind Brentford in seventh.
If Chelsea finish eighth or lower, they just take up the place in the Europa League as FA Cup winners. League places stay as they are now.
With many teams now in contention for fifth, and a huge number of permutations about how far down the European places could go, it promises to be a fascinating battle.
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