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We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League game at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Tottenham prediction and preview. Can Spurs earn back-to-back away wins?
Aston Villa vs Tottenham: The Key Stats
- The Opta supercomputer heavily favours an Aston Villa victory, with Unai Emery’s side winning 61.5% of the pre-match simulations.
- Tottenham have lost six of their last 10 Premier League games against Aston Villa (W4), more than they had in their previous 34 against them (W19 D10 L5).
- Villa are looking to win three Premier League games in a row at home for the first time since winning eight straight between September and January.
Aston Villa and Tottenham Hotspur head into Sunday’s Premier League clash with very different objectives at opposite ends of the table, and there is plenty at stake for both sides.
Relegation candidates Spurs ended a 15-match winless run with a 1-0 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers last weekend, picking up their first Premier League win of 2026.
It was not a perfect performance, but Spurs got the job done as João Palhinha’s late goal secured all three points and offered new boss Roberto De Zerbi some much-needed relief after a rocky start included a 1-0 defeat at Sunderland and a 2-2 home draw with Brighton and Hove Albion.
But Spurs are not out of the woods by any measure. Heading into Matchday 35 they are still in the drop zone with a two-point gap to safety, and with a daunting run ahead, they will need to find more points from somewhere to remain in the top-flight.
Palhinha’s strike would have lifted them out of the relegation zone but for West Ham’s late 2-1 victory over Everton. The Opta supercomputer currently rates Spurs’ chances of relegation at 60.2% with four matches remaining.
Tottenham are also looking to pick up consecutive wins in the league for the first time since their opening two matches of the season – winning 3-0 over Burnley and 2-0 over Manchester City.
But they are set to face a difficult challenge at Villa Park, where the hosts have won 11 of their 17 home league games this season (D2 L4).
Villa are looking to win three on the trot at home for the first time since a spectacular run of eight straight home wins between September and January that catapulted them into the Champions League reckoning.
Unai Emery’s side do come into Sunday’s clash on the back of some wobbly form, though, having won just two of their last seven league games (D1 L4), suffering as many defeats in that time as they did in their previous 24 matches (W15 D5).
Villa lost 1-0 at Fulham last weekend, though remain well placed in the race for Champions League qualification, with the top five teams set to secure a place in next season’s competition.
Their confidence may have been further dented by Thursday’s 1-0 loss at Nottingham Forest in the first leg of their UEFA Europa League semi-final. In a very tight game at the City Ground, Lucas Digne’s handball opened the door for Chris Wood to emphatically strike the only goal from the penalty spot.
With their Champions League qualification hopes high – the latest Opta supercomputer simulations saw them finish in the top five 97.6% of the time – Villa must be careful not to let their attention drift too much, with next week’s return leg at Villa Park on the horizon.
Tottenham, meanwhile, have shown signs of improvement under De Zerbi despite mixed results. Since the Italian’s arrival, Spurs are averaging more pressed sequences per game (12.7) and possession won in the final third per game (5.3) than they were under both Thomas Frank (11.1 and 3.7) and Igor Tudor (10.8 and 3.8).
While those numbers are encouraging, Spurs’ growing injury list is not. Their wretched luck continued against Wolves as Dominic Solanke was forced off in the first half with a hamstring issue, before Xavi Simons later suffered an ACL tear that will reportedly keep him out until well into next season.
They join Cristian Romero, Mohammed Kudus, Dejan Kulusevski and Wilson Odobert on the sidelines as the major absentees for Spurs, though Destiny Udogie could return to the squad for this one.
The main attacking responsibilities may fall on Richarlison, who is averaging 0.72 goal involvements per 90 this season (nine goals and four assists in 1,615 minutes) – his third-best rate in a Premier League campaign behind 2023-24 and 2024-25 (both 0.9 per 90).
Villa, meanwhile, will be without Amadou Onana following his injury against Forest in the semi-final.
But Ollie Watkins remains a key threat, with 10 of his 11 league goals this season coming since the start of December – more than any other player in that period. He has also scored in three previous league appearances against teams managed by De Zerbi, including a hat-trick in September 2023.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Tottenham have lost six of their last 10 Premier League matches against Aston Villa (W4) – more defeats than they suffered across their previous 34 meetings with the Villans (W19 D10 L5).
That included the reverse fixture in October when Villa won 2-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
Villa also won this fixture 2-0 last season, and are aiming for consecutive home league victories over Spurs for the first time since May/November 2004.
Interestingly, none of the last 21 league meetings between Villa (7 wins) and Spurs (14 wins) have ended in a draw. Only Chelsea vs Crystal Palace (26 between September 1997 and February 2024) has produced a longer run without a stalemate in the history of the Premier League.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Prediction
It’s not good news for Tottenham fans, with the Opta supercomputer making Aston Villa big favourites with a 61.5% chance of victory.
Spurs came out on top in just 18.2% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations, while a draw is given a 20.3% chance.
Aston Villa vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Pau Torres, Lucas Digne, Youri Tielemans, Lamare Bogarde, John McGinn, Morgan Rogers, Emiliano Buendía, Ollie Watkins.
Head Coach: Unai Emery
Tottenham: Antonín Kinsky, Pedro Porro, Kevin Danso, Micky van de Ven, Djed Spence, Yves Bissouma, Rodrigo Bentancur, Conor Gallagher, Randal Kolo Muani, Mathys Tel, Richarlison.
Head Coach: Roberto De Zerbi
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system that assigns an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world, and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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