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The actual NFL draft is two days away. Over the weekend, the complexion of this draft changed significantly with the trade of Dexter Lawrence II for a few reasons that I illustrated in more detail here.
But in short, six teams have a majority of the capital in this draft. And I think a lot of teams feel the way the Bengals do about the actual layout of talent: It’s not great. That’s why this mock reflects some trade action inside the top five to scoop up the “premium” options on the board. I wonder if a trade up from later in the top 10, or just outside the top 10, could be accomplished at a more affordable price, by the way. The comparison I’m thinking of is 2013, when the Dolphins came up to No. 3 for pass rusher Dion Jordan, costing them simply that year’s first- and second-round picks. The Giants traded a player to the Bengals whom, I’m guessing, they had hoped to get a late first-round pick for a few days before.
While the 2013 draft was maligned for its lack of talent, it still featured future gold jackets in Lane Johnson and Travis Kelce. Keenan Allen was a third-round pick. So was Tyrann Mathieu. Not all is lost. But it’s hard to ignore leaguewide behavior as we dive into what will be our second and final mock of the season (the first one was a bit nontraditional, featuring more Kevin Costner than you’re likely expecting, and you can find it here).
1. Las Vegas Raiders: Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana
Easy enough. Mendoza has essentially been calling actual Raiders plays in his sleep for the past month. This is as foregone a conclusion as one can fathom, and I think he’ll stack up formidably in the past three years of quarterback prospects, which have given us Jaxson Dart, Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, Bo Nix and Drake Maye. I don’t think Mendoza will be the worst of those players—and that’s a good place to start.
2. New York Jets: David Bailey, edge, Texas Tech
I think all the theatrics surrounding a canceled Bailey visit to New York, despite the overwhelming crush of analysts believing the Jets would take the defensive end anyway, was merely an invitation for other teams to potentially make them an offer to trade up here (and hand the Jets more 2027 draft capital).
3. Dallas Cowboys (via Arizona Cardinals): Arvell Reese, LB, Ohio State
Projected trade: Cardinals receive Nos. 12, 20 and a 2027 second-round pick; Cowboys receive No. 3
The Cowboys need both an off-ball linebacker and an edge. They were involved, at least in a cursory way, in the Maxx Crosby discussions, which possibly tipped the organization’s hand. Reese’s Micah Parsons comparison could lead Dallas to close the loop on the Parsons saga, which saw the team deal the transcendent edge rusher for what would ultimately become Reese, Quinnen Williams and Frank Clark. The Cowboys’ personnel staff doesn’t see much use for the team’s second first-round pick, slotted at No. 20, and here they opt for a win-now maneuver.
4. Los Angeles Rams (via Tennessee Titans): Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame
Projected trade: Titans receive Nos. 13, 61, 93 and a 2027 first-round pick; Rams receive Nos. 4 and 101
This is a nightmare scenario for the Cardinals, who would not trade their own top-five pick within the division but have now watched Les Snead swoop up to nab the top offensive playmaker in the draft. Remember how in the Rams were on Christian McCaffrey? Love is a physical back who lives for outside zone (which is a small part of the McVay offensive lexicon but showcases his patience and brilliance) and can help protect Matthew Stafford on the back end. While there isn’t necessarily a game-changing receiver that fits into the Rams’ universe, Love, in what could be Stafford’s final season, may conquer all. The Titans may like the idea of having a 2027 chip to play with if the new coaching staff decides Cam Ward isn’t the long-term answer.
5. New York Giants: Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State
With the Giants now also sitting at pick No. 10, John Harbaugh and Joe Schoen have flexibility. I don’t care that the Giants just signed Tremaine Edmunds; this draft is about honing in on someone—anyone—who would be good enough to be considered a top pick in another class. Harbaugh has talked in his early press conferences about stopping the run first and foremost. Styles is going to aid the Giants against the run, he’s going to help the team from leaking against the pass and is growing as an interior blitzer as well.
6. Kansas City Chiefs (via Cleveland Browns) Francis Mauigoa, T, Miami
Projected trade: Browns receive Nos. 9, 29; Chiefs receive Nos. 6, 39
Andy Reid wants to hammer the offensive line in this draft and, with Cleveland having so many holes, Kansas City can get the assurance of picking the correct tackle, not just the remaining one, as the team has done in so many recent end-of-first-round selections. Mauigoa’s back injury could make this an interesting discussion point, but he is still believed to be the best offensive lineman in this draft. The Chiefs also have the 40th selection, which they can bundle with No. 39 to get back into the first round if need be (stay tuned).
7. Washington Commanders: Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State
I really liked Makai Lemon here with the Amon-Ra St. Brown comparison. But when I came across this quote about Tate from former Ohio State teammate Will Howard (via this ESPN piece), it convinced me that Tate could be the best receiver to operate in new coordinator David Blough’s system.
“Carnell is kind of a little bit of a Swiss Army knife. He plays bigger than he is. He’s strong as hell, and he’s really sneaky fast. The thing I think that’s so overlooked about his game is how well he blocks. He is a hell of a blocking receiver, and he’s super unselfish.”
That sounds like a receiver who can help Jayden Daniels. And fast.
8. New Orleans Saints: Mansoor Delane, DB, LSU
We could say this is the first time the Saints selected a first-round pick out of LSU, but with NIL is that really the case? Delane transferred to the Tigers last season after building up his skills at Virginia Tech. He passed by Baton Rouge. The Saints need help and, though the team had a surprisingly good EPA against drop-backs last season, Brandon Staley’s defense is most effective with a strong anchor cornerback. The Saints are not going to pass up on the last quality corner this draft will see for quite some time.
9. Cleveland Browns (via Kansas City Chiefs): Spencer Fano, G, Utah
Projected trade: Chiefs receive Nos. 6, 39; Browns receive Nos. 9, 29
The Browns get a versatile offensive lineman who can fit myriad needs on that turned-over offensive line. Fano fits the texture of the AFC North better than most offensive linemen in this draft, and the Browns have ammunition to come back and double dip at the position or come back for the wide receiver of their choice.
10. New York Giants: Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State
Fairway picks for the Giants. This is a Baltimore-like mock—think Tyler Linderbaum and Kyle Hamilton in 2022—without concern for who should be drafted where. Ioane may feel like a stretch, but the Giants are loading up on bruisers and trying to establish the run while also shutting it down on the opposite side. The red zone would be less of a mystery with a seriously beefy interior that masks some of the longstanding issues the Giants have had on the line.
11. Philadelphia Eagles (via Miami Dolphins): Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State
Projected trade: Dolphins receive No. 23 and a 2027 first-round pick; Eagles receive No. 11
Already assured—or as close to assured as the Eagles can be—that A.J. Brown will move to New England for a 2027 first-round pick, the Eagles can be comfortable dealing future draft capital to move up for one of the last high quality players on this board. Howie Roseman has been a vacuum for top defensive talent out of elite schools. Downs will help mitigate the loss of Reed Blankenship in free agency and will give Vic Fangio a chance to mix up his zone looks. Downs can become Malcolm Jenkins 2.0 for an Eagles team that is positioning itself into a new era. The Eagles can come down to swoop ahead of the safety-needy Cardinals.
12. Arizona Cardinals (via Dallas Cowboys): Rueben Bain Jr., edge, Miami
The surge of information coming out about Bain—or at least surfacing in the public—leads me to believe that maybe there is a hopeful general manager out there wanting the edge rusher from Miami to fall. While I’m not suggesting that GM is Monti Ossenfort, I am saying that the Cardinals now have a few picks to play with and they can add Bain to an interchangeable front for retained defensive coordinator Nick Rallis. Bain talked at the combine about how aggressive he was in his Cardinals interview, and Arizona has likely done its homework after Bain was initially thought of as a possible top-five selection.
13.Tennessee Titans (via Los Angeles Rams): Makai Lemon, WR, USC
Lemon is the possible Amon-Ra St. Brown avatar that teams have been looking for. What I love about Lemon is that he makes that catch. All the time. Cam Ward would love having someone with reliable hands in the right spot. While this isn’t the splash the Titans were hoping to make, Tennessee would now have a handful of mid-round picks to explore a trade-up scenario for another Robert Saleh–type player.
14. Baltimore Ravens: Kadyn Proctor, T, Alabama
Here comes a run on the big guys. Proctor needs the most work, but the Ravens have had success dipping into the Alabama pool in the past and can pair Proctor with the great Ronnie Stanley for at least one season. The Ravens lost a lot of ass-kickers in free agency and a Declan Doyle offense—if anything like a Ben Johnson offense—is going to need to prioritize running the football.
15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon
The Buccaneers only utilized 12-personnel on about 18% of snaps last season. With most of the league shifting quickly toward multiple tight end sets as a standard—and a season after Baker Mayfield was dinged up, relying often on his legs to both early success and overall detriment—the Buccaneers know a shift is afoot. Sadiq isn’t a one-for-one Mike Evans replacement, but would juice an offense that needs to look and feel different in 2026.
16. New York Jets: Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State
The Jets continue setting the stage for next season when Geno Smith’s eventual rookie replacement takes the field. Tyson is one of the top receivers in this class and the Jets could theoretically slow his arrival given questions about his injury history. I tried to stay hype-averse when it came to Tyson, given that the timing of his workout was almost certainly pegged to generate some predraft fervor.
17. Detroit Lions: Monroe Freeling, T, Georgia
Despite the Lions’ very strange predraft tweet that had us asking both if they were going to make a big move or if they were generally doing O.K., the result here is a draft in which the Lions fail to find a trade-up partner for the top offensive lineman. Still, Freeling is an ideal long-term replacement candidate for Taylor Decker and will fit on the right side, opposite Penei Sewell.
18. Minnesota Vikings: Dillon Thienemen, S, Oregon
I’ve made this point on several mediums at this point. I think the Vikings discovered the limit of what coaching can do on offense last year with J.J. McCarthy. At the risk of making the same discovery on defense, the Vikings provide Brian Flores with a backfield chess piece who can either study under Harrison Smith or grow into his role altogether.
19. Carolina Panthers: Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo
The safety run concludes at pick No. 19. I toyed with the idea of taking Omar Cooper Jr. here. However, the season of letting DC Ejiro Evero cook continues. The Panthers have needed to upheave the roster desperately and bypassed defensive talent for the right to nab Tetairoa McMillan last year.
20. Arizona Cardinals: Caleb Lomu, T, Utah
The Cardinals can address one of their biggest needs by nabbing the experienced tackle out of Utah. Lomu can hand this offensive line some options as it clears the runway for a rookie quarterback, either this year or next. The Cardinals can give Marvin Harrison Jr. a little runway before startling him with the selection of another first-round pick at wide receiver.
21. Pittsburgh Steelers: T.J. Parker, edge, Clemson
With Yahoo reporting that the Steelers may be looking to deal one or both of their projected edge rushers during the draft, Parker makes sense. The Clemson product is a creator of havoc first and foremost, which would lay the groundwork for a very familiar Steelers draft strategy despite the change at head coach.
22. Los Angeles Chargers: Blake Miller, T, Clemson
The assignment is pretty clear: Get a guard or get someone who can slide there. Miller would give the offensive line-ravaged Chargers some extra assurances going into next season as this year’s wonky, amoebic offensive line class rolls on. While the mulleted Gennings Dunker out of Iowa seems more like a fit for Jim Harbaugh, that selection seems like it can wait for another round.
23. Miami Dolphins (via Philadelphia Eagles): KC Concepcion, WR, Texas A&M
Projected trade: Eagles receive No. 11; Dolphins receive No. 23 and a 2027 first-round pick
The Dolphins cannot come out of this first round without at least addressing the fact that both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are out of the building. Knowing that Concepcion would be here indicates some savvy board work from the new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan, who comes away with more valuable 2027 capital and at least one contribution to the offense for new quarterback Malik Willis.
24. Las Vegas Raiders (via Cleveland Browns): Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana
Projected trade: Browns receive No. 36, a 2027 second-round pick and a 2027 fourth-round pick; Raiders receive No. 24
Tom Brady has been talking nonstop about facilitating the best conditions for Fernando Mendoza. And while drafting his top receiver from Indiana may feel like an act of favoritism, it would also give Mendoza some terra firma to stand on as he approaches his first NFL campaign. No doubt the Raiders have gotten plenty of intel about the Hoosiers’ standout in their countless meetings and conversations via conduit with Mendoza.
25. Chicago Bears: Akheem Mesidor, edge, Miami
I don’t mind that he’s 25 if this is a projected draft class with so few players expected to sign second contracts anyway. If Mesidor has a better chance of contributing, who cares if he’ll be almost 30 by the time he’s up for a second contract? Again, there may only be 15 first-round-caliber players in this draft, and Mesidor is slipping due to a scale that doesn’t really apply to a draft that is devoid of quality anyway. The Bears don’t have much time remaining on Caleb Williams’s rookie deal. Apply the pressure now and dip back into the edge class next year (or in the second round with a more developmental player).
26. Buffalo Bills: Malachi Lawrence, edge, UCF
With the Bills switching to a 3–4 defense, this team needs more players who profile as pure 3–4 ends. Lawrence looks like a tarantula on the outside and never seems to get beaten by rushers trying to turn the corner on him. Lawrence, like Akheem Mesidor, is older but not boomer-esque for a draft prospect.
27. San Francisco 49ers: Max Iheanachor, T, Arizona State
All you hear about Iheanachor is that he’s a high-upside project pick. Well, just about the best option for a player like that would be playing alongside Trent Williams, who just received a two-year extension, and under the supervision of Chris Foerster, who may be the best actively working offensive line coach in the NFL. Maybe Iheanachor won’t develop right away, but can round into shape quickly enough to provide a long-term future at tackle.
28. Arizona Cardinals (via Houston Texans): Ty Simpson, QB, Alabama
Projected trade: Texans receive Nos. 34, 104; Cardinals receive No. 28
It must be done. Here the Cardinals leave the first round with, in lieu of Arvel Reese, a different, attacking edge player (Rueben Bain Jr.), an offensive lineman (Caleb Lomu) and a quarterback they can place a fifth-year option on at the end of his rookie contract. With Jacoby Brissett looking for a starter’s raise, the Cardinals have no choice but to swing for upside and see if Simpson can bake under Gardner Minshew II throughout training camp and emerge close to Week 1 as a capable starter.
29. Cleveland Browns (via Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Rams): Denzel Boston, WR, Washington
Projected trade: Chiefs receive Nos. 6, 39; Browns receive Nos. 9, 29
Leaving the first round with a quality wideout and versatile offensive lineman is a solid scenario for the Browns, who had both of those positions of glaring need staring at them heading into the draft. Boston is a big receiver with a clean injury history who is talented at ripping 50-50 balls away from opposing defenders. With an offense that isn’t sure of its quarterback, Boston is a worthwhile swing.
30. Miami Dolphins (via Denver Broncos): Chris Johnson, CB, San Diego State
The benefit for Jon-Eric Sullivan is that, when all positions are essentially positions of need, it gets easier to declare a night one victory. After scooping up Concepcion at wideout, the Dolphins can pivot to the defensive side of the ball and select their favorite cornerback.
31. New England Patriots: Jacob Rodriguez, LB, Texas Tech
With A.J. Brown reportedly en route and the edge market dried up, the Patriots can focus on other needs. Mike Vrabel did an excellent job finding his type of players in free agency but now has to find them via the draft to make this font of talent more sustainable. It’s between Kayden McDonald and Rodriguez here, but guess what? It’s my mock draft, I already took the 16-over-1 upset with the fourth pick and I want the wily off-ball linebacker to be a 10-year anchor on that New England defensive line.
32. Seattle Seahawks: Jadarian Price, RB, Notre Dame
I just don’t feel like I can turn against the great Daniel Jeremiah here. The NFL Network draft analyst noted just how far the running back class falls off after Price, and Seattle needs to find a space-filler to replace the production they got from Kenneth Walker III. Notre Dame has two running backs going in the first round of the draft. What a world.
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CONOR ORR
Conor Orr is a senior writer for Sports Illustrated, where he covers the NFL and cohosts the MMQB Podcast. Orr has been covering the NFL for more than a decade and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. His work has been published in The Best American Sports Writing book series and he previously worked for The Newark Star-Ledger and NFL Media. Orr is an avid runner and youth sports coach who lives in New Jersey with his wife, two children and a loving terrier named Ernie.
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