It really didn’t make sense for the Giants to trade Dexter Lawrence II. Of course, we all said this in a world where few thought the No. 10 pick was attainable for a player who will turn 29 years old before Thanksgiving and will be hard pressed to find the deal he was squeezing the Giants for on the other side (especially in Cincinnati, where the team will have to create cap space to facilitate a deal that pushes Lawrence even halfway closer to the top of the defensive tackle market).
Sometimes, the most brilliant game of trade chicken results in a brilliant conclusion for everyone. We’ll get to the bigger picture from Lawrence’s perspective in a moment, but first a few smaller micro-thoughts on the trade:
• The trading of Lawrence and the Giants rushing across the country to attend the workout of Arizona State wideout Jordyn Tyson makes much more sense now. While attending a workout is not a declaration of interest, Tyson was likely not a fit at the No. 5 spot (the Giants’ original pick). While every team should check off every box, general manager Joe Schoen’s visit did raise eyebrows during the week. Now, we know why.
• The Bengals must have had an even more cynical view of this year’s draft class than most. Cincinnati’s scouting staff is smaller by comparison but respected. While most executives I spoke to had the talent threshold dropping off after the 15th pick, Cincinnati surrendered No. 10, believing that Lawrence, a transcendent interior lineman who redefined the expectations of a “nose” technique player generating quarterback pressures, is more immediately impactful than any player who sinks out of the top nine. This, despite the fact that Lawrence’s play dropped off last year, either due to lack of interest, a withered appreciation for the New York market or in generally being out of playing shape (a regular rotation storyline in the tri-state area). Colleague Albert Breer noted thisis the first time since Randy Moss (to the Raiders) that a veteran non-quarterback was dealt for a top 10 pick. That feels less like a willing rewriting of history and more of a signal flare that this draft class is not one to write home about.
• While the Bengals will be seen as immediate overpayers, I would hold that thought for the simple reason that there are no interior defensive linemen even close to Lawrence’s skill level—no matter how diminished he was a year ago. Defensive tackle was by far the Bengals’ most glaring need, that position group was not deep in the 2026 class and Cincinnati has already tried conjuring value out of that position recently via non first-round picks (the team took Kris Jenkins and McKinnley Jackson in back to back rounds in ‘24). Lawrence is the only nose guard I’ve ever seen become the focal point of an opposing offense’s game plan. I remember speaking to some coaches involved in the 2022 playoff game between the Eagles and Giants and being instructed to look at how Philadelphia was simply trying to minimize Lawrence’s ability to disrupt in the backfield. This, at nearly 350 lbs. Two seasons after that, NextGenStats tracked his double-team rate among the highest of the past six years. This, in particular, bolsters the investment in Boye Mafe and pairs Lawrence with B.J. Hill, whom he played with in New York during his first two seasons (Hill seems excited, by the way). So, yes, the Bengals are “all in” theoretically, which is the more banal takeaway from all of this. But even so, I see it as an understandable value play in their very specific situation.
• The Giants are now the sixth team with multiple first-round picks in this draft. To me, that radically changes the complexion of even a relatively uninteresting class devoid of instant playmakers. These teams are going to be attempting to make complementary selections versus the rest of a board that could have more of a best player available approach given the dearth of talent.
At first glance, it’s impossible not to see the Giants as overwhelming victors here. Optical wins are often short lived, but the incoming John Harbaugh era has swiftly rid itself of a player who expressed a disinterest in playing there and will be quickly replaced by two top-five picks for the fan base to obsess over all spring. Harbaugh is still in a tone-setting phase of employment and opted for a fast resolution on Lawrence. While it’s impossible to argue that the Giants are better without Lawrence—the defensive tackle was one of the team’s single most valuable players in Net Yards Over Average, an NFL-tracked metric that measures a team’s down-by-down performance when a player is on the field versus off the field—this is a long-term gamble that Lawrence will not be worth the pay raise and headache. Harbaugh had better hope that his history with gutting the roster goes better than Schoen’s (a list that includes Julian Love, Xavier McKinney, Saquon Barkley and Leonard Williams).
Still, we noted the sound reasoning behind Cincinnati swinging the trade and Lawrence’s own personal gambit is worth considering. At first glance, being shipped from the biggest media market in the world to Western Ohio, in a rainy, bruising, slog-it-out AFC North doesn’t seem like a masterstroke. That is, until you consider that Lawrence has now rid himself of Cam Jurgens, Landon Dickerson, Tyler Steen, Tyler Smith, Cooper Beebe, Tyler Booker and Sam Cosmi. The NFC East has a wide range of good to great interior linemen and were tush-pushing nearly 40 times per season. Simply not having to play the Eagles twice a year, even without offensive line sensei Jeff Stoutland, feels like a victory.
The AFC North? Outside of Steelers center Zach Frazier, we’re looking at a Ravens team that is completely turning over its offensive line and a Browns team that is also in a major transition period with a pair of long-time interior stalwarts Joel Bitonio and Wyatt Teller moving on. Maybe if Lawrence’s plan is to bet on himself this year, it’s easier to do so and prove himself invaluable after whooping up on Cleveland and its troika of sack-happy quarterbacks twice a year. A sound strategy for anyone, really. A tip of the cap to Warren Sharp, who noted that Aaron Rodgers playing into his age 43 season is also significant for an interior pass rusher.
In fairness to Lawrence, we also considered this in regard to a very short-lived Raven named Maxx Crosby. Here’s hoping—for all parties involved—this one goes more smoothly. For now, it looks that way.
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CONOR ORR
Conor Orr is a senior writer for Sports Illustrated, where he covers the NFL and cohosts the MMQB Podcast. Orr has been covering the NFL for more than a decade and is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. His work has been published in The Best American Sports Writing book series and he previously worked for The Newark Star-Ledger and NFL Media. Orr is an avid runner and youth sports coach who lives in New Jersey with his wife, two children and a loving terrier named Ernie.
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