Table of Contents
Open Extended Reactions
The conventional wisdom about the running backs in the 2026 NFL draft is that Jeremiyah Love (Notre Dame) is far ahead of the rest of a somewhat disappointing class. The opinion of my BackCAST projection system is the same.
Last year, nine running backs had a BackCAST over 40%. This year, Love is the only running back who passes this threshold. However, there are still several backs who have positive projections and should be useful NFL players.
BackCAST projects running back success in the NFL based on statistics that have correlated with success in the past. Historically, a college running back who has a good size/speed combination has a high average yards per carry and represented a large percentage of his college team's running game is more likely to succeed at the pro level.
BackCAST considers these factors and projects the degree to which the running back will exceed the NFL production of an "average" drafted running back during his first five seasons. For example, a running back with a plus-50% BackCAST is projected to gain 50% more yards than the "average" drafted running back. BackCAST also projects whether each player is likely to be heavily involved in the receiving game or is more of a "ground-and-pound" back.
What follows are some of the notable BackCAST projections for the prospects available in the 2026 draft. (Note: I wrote about these running backs out of order so I can take on two pairs of teammates together.) Let's get started with the Fighting Irish's former duo.
Jump to:
Full BackCAST rankings
Methodology: How it works
Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame
BackCAST score: 89.0%
Scouts Inc. ranking: 1
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Travis Etienne Jr., Todd Gurley (but lighter)
Jadarian Price, Notre Dame
BackCAST score: minus-46.4%
Scouts Inc. ranking: 71
Type of back: Ground-and-pound
Similar historical prospects: Miles Sanders, Bilal Powell
Love is a very good running back prospect, but BackCAST suggests that he's not generational. Although he is far ahead of the rest of this year's class, Love isn't even among the top-25 running back prospects since 1998 by BackCAST score. (Even the similar prospects listed above, Etienne and Gurley, had higher scores when they entered the draft.) On the other hand, of all the running backs in our database who averaged at least 6.0 yards per carry in college and weighed between 205 and 220 pounds, Love (212 pounds) ran the fastest 40-yard dash at 4.36 seconds.
Scouts are high on Love in every way: running, receiving and even pass blocking — which we aren't measuring here. But as productive as Love was in college, I would not suggest using a high first-round pick on him — especially since most of the teams that have been linked to Love in mock drafts don’t have the quality of offensive line that you would need to help a star running back fulfill his potential.
BackCAST is fairly negative about Price. Yes, part of the reason is that Price was a smaller part of the Notre Dame running game and had only 113 carries last season. He also had six receptions for 87 yards last season. But the argument in Price's favor is that he had fewer carries in college because he was sharing a backfield with Love! The counterargument is that hyped college running back duos tend to underperform in the NFL: LenDale White and Reggie Bush, Ronnie Brown and Cadillac Williams, or Darren McFadden and Felix Jones.
Jonah Coleman, Washington
BackCAST score: 36.3%
Scouts Inc. ranking: 152
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Jay Ajayi, Kenneth Gainwell
The next six running back prospects listed here are essentially indistinguishable based on BackCAST projections. Coleman's career is interesting because his yards per carry average has dropped in each of the past two seasons, from 6.8 in 2023 (at Arizona) to 5.5 in 2024 and then 4.9 last season. However, his rushing touchdown total went up each season, from five to 10 to 15. Coleman also had an impressive 31 catches for 354 yards and two touchdowns in 2025.
Adam Randall, Clemson
BackCAST score: 33.4%
Scouts Inc. ranking: 150
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Toby Gerhart, Doug Martin
Randall is the biggest back in this year's class at 232 pounds, and he has more receiving value than usually seen from a back his size. He's a converted wide receiver who, in some ways, is still learning how to play running back.
Although he ran a 4.5-second 40 at the combine, one of the slower results from the 2026 class, scouts generally feel that Randall combines quick cuts with enough top-end speed to get explosive plays.
Mike Washington Jr., Arkansas
BackCAST score: 32.2%
Scouts Inc. ranking: 89
Type of back: Ground-and-pound
Similar historical prospects: Latavius Murray, Knile Davis
Washington ran a 4.33-second 40 at 223 pounds, which put him close to the record for Speed Score, a metric based on combining 40 time with weight (because it's more impressive to run faster when you are larger). But Washington had less college production, in part because he played at three schools (Buffalo, New Mexico State, Arkansas). Last season, he rushed for a career-high 1,070 yards. He also has significant ball security issues, with 10 fumbles on 587 career carries.
Nicholas Singleton, Penn State
BackCAST score: 28%
Scouts Inc. ranking: 104
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Ke’Shawn Vaughn, Israel Abanikanda
Kaytron Allen, Penn State
BackCAST score: 21.6%
Scouts Inc. ranking: 146
Type of back: Ground-and-pound
Similar historical prospects: Tatum Bell, Onterrio Smith
The projections for Singleton and Allen start with the same issue that we have with Love and Price, but this time BackCAST likes both backs. In fact, BackCAST likes Singleton slightly better even though Allen was clearly the preferred back for Penn State coaches (210 carries compared to Singleton's 123) and had more yards per carry in 2025 (6.2 to 4.5).
Kaytron Allen runs for 15-yard rushing touchdown
Kaytron Allen runs for 15-yard rushing touchdown
Singleton had better success in previous seasons, with 172 carries for 1,099 yards and 6.4 yards per carry as a junior in 2024. Allen had 220 carries for 1,108 yards and 5.0 yards per carry in 2024. Singleton was also a better receiver in 2025, with 219 receiving yards compared to only 68 for Allen.
Seth McGowan, Kentucky
BackCAST score: 25.9%
Scouts Inc. ranking: 186
Type of back: Balanced
Similar historical prospects: Keaontay Ingram, Javorius Allen
McGowan made waves with his performance at the combine. He had a 42½-inch vertical jump, the second best for a running back at the combine since at least 2007. His broad jump of 10-foot-11 was also tops among this year's running backs.
BackCAST doesn't consider either of these drills, but it does consider a good 4.49-second 40 time at 223 pounds, plus 5.2 yards per carry in college. However, scouts are not as high on McGowan, and he's sometimes dinged for fumble issues and a lack of explosive carries.
Note about table below: RecIndex represents how much each player is a receiving back, with positive numbers equaling more receiving value and negative numbers equaling less.
* Did not run the 40 at the combine, estimated time based on weight.
** Did not run the 40 at the combine, time listed for pro day.
Methodology
BackCAST is based on a statistical analysis of Division I halfbacks drafted in the years 1998-2023, and measures the following:
-
The prospect's weight at the combine.
-
The prospect's 40-yard dash at the combine. If he did not run, BackCAST uses his pro day time, and if he did not run then BackCAST uses a 40 projection based on weight and projected draft position.
-
The prospect's yards per attempt with an adjustment for running backs who had fewer career carries than an average drafted back.
-
The prospect's "AOEPS," which measures how much, on average, the prospect's team used him in the running game during his career relative to the usage of an average drafted running back during the same year of eligibility.
-
The prospect's receiving yards per game in his college career.
BackCAST was developed by Nathan Forster.
